Using instrumental variables based on the ancestry composition of residents in U.S. counties, the authors estimate the causal impact of immigration on local shelter prices.
Working Papers
Working papers feature new research from La Follette School faculty members. These pre-publication versions of academic articles, book chapters, and other publications are in various stages of completion, offering insight into our current research before it is published in peer-reviewed outlets.
Current Account Dynamics and the Saving-Investment Nexus in a Changing and Uncertain World
The authors examine determinants of aggregate foreign exchange reserve holdings by central banks before observing central bank behavior.
Assessing the Effectiveness of Wisconsin’s School Funding Formulas
This paper develops two statistical indicators to assist policymakers in determining whether the state’s school funding system has achieved its goals.
Assessing the Effectiveness of School Funding Formulas in Massachusetts, Texas, and Wisconsin
This paper develops two statistical indicators for several states to assist policymakers in determining whether the state’s school funding system has achieved its goals.
The Dollar versus the Euro as International Currencies
The authors examine determinants of aggregate foreign exchange reserve holdings by central banks before observing central bank behavior.
Forecasting Real Activity using Cross-Sectoral Stock Market Information
Stock prices declined abruptly in the wake of the Covid-19, reflecting both the deterioration of investors’ expectations of economic activity as well as the surge in risk aversion. In the following months however, economic activity remained sluggish while equity markets bounced back. This disconnect between equity values and macro-variables can be partially explained by other factors, namely the decline in risk-free interest rates, and -for the US- the strong profitability of the IT sector.
Do Foreign Yield Curves Predict U.S. Recessions and GDP Growth?
This paper shows that foreign term spreads constructed from bond yields of non-U.S. G-7 constituents predict future U.S. recessions and that foreign term spreads are stronger predictors of U.S. recessions occurring within the next year than U.S. term spreads.
Foreign direct investment under uncertainty: evidence from a large panel of countries
Menzie Chinn and colleagues examine the effect of uncertainty on foreign direct investment inflows for advanced, emerging market and developing countries over a 25 year long (pre-Covid) sample. Using a push-pull framework, and controlling for both global and local factors, they find policy uncertainty has discernable and significant effects on inflows, varying in strength and direction between different groups of countries. Moreover, it is not host country uncertainty that seems to matter the most, but rather global uncertainty. Additionally, they find that high levels of uncertainty matter disproportionately. Finally, financial openness accentuates the impact of uncertainty for emerging market and developing countries.
The Tax Autonomy of Local Governments in the United States
Statistics on the share of total government tax revenue raised by local governments provide an incomplete picture of local government taxing power. If higher level governments define the local tax base, determine tax rates, or …
Funding Public Education in Wisconsin: The Property Tax-School Funding Dilemma
This paper traces the development of school finance policies in Wisconsin and highlights deficiencies in state aid policies and the reliance on untargeted property tax relief as among the chief reasons why Wisconsin has failed to solve its property tax-school funding dilemma.