Inspiring evidence-based policymaking
This paper examines the Black-White life expectancy gap in Wisconsin from 2005 to 2017, disaggregating the state into Milwaukee County, Dane County (Madison), and the rest of the state.
The authors examine determinants of aggregate foreign exchange reserve holdings by central banks before observing central bank behavior.
Using instrumental variables based on the ancestry composition of residents in U.S. counties, the authors estimate the causal impact of immigration on local shelter prices.
The authors examine determinants of aggregate foreign exchange reserve holdings by central banks before observing central bank behavior.
This paper develops two statistical indicators to assist policymakers in determining whether the state’s school funding system has achieved its goals.
This paper develops two statistical indicators for several states to assist policymakers in determining whether the state’s school funding system has achieved its goals.
The authors examine determinants of aggregate foreign exchange reserve holdings by central banks before observing central bank behavior.
Stock prices declined abruptly in the wake of the Covid-19, reflecting both the deterioration of investors’ expectations of economic activity as well as the surge in risk aversion. In the following months however, economic activity remained sluggish while equity markets bounced back. This disconnect between equity values and macro-variables can be partially explained by other factors, namely the decline in risk-free interest rates, and -for the US- the strong profitability of the IT sector.
This paper shows that foreign term spreads constructed from bond yields of non-U.S. G-7 constituents predict future U.S. recessions and that foreign term spreads are stronger predictors of U.S. recessions occurring within the next year than U.S. term spreads.
Menzie Chinn and colleagues examine the effect of uncertainty on foreign direct investment inflows for advanced, emerging market and developing countries over a 25 year long (pre-Covid) sample. Using a push-pull framework, and controlling for both global and local factors, they find policy uncertainty has discernable and significant effects on inflows, varying in strength and direction between different groups of countries. Moreover, it is not host country uncertainty that seems to matter the most, but rather global uncertainty. Additionally, they find that high levels of uncertainty matter disproportionately. Finally, financial openness accentuates the impact of uncertainty for emerging market and developing countries.