Ruanda McFerren, MPA, Master of Urban and Regional Planning

On a near daily basis, I am in meetings that relate to a real-world version of grad school group work. Whether it is assisting in development of a new citywide housing policy, compiling information on digital innovations, or coming up with ideas for #cityhallselfie day, much of the work I’m engaged in involves a deep level of communication and collaboration.

Mikhaila Calice, MPA/EAP

Hometown Ann Arbor, Michigan Undergraduate education Bachelor’s degree in political studies and international studies from Randolph-Macon College in Ashland, Virginia, 2015 Professional/research interests Energy policy Accomplishments La Follette School fellow; undergraduate Pi Beta Kappa and …

Tracking the State Economies at High Frequency: A Primer

Tracking the business cycle at the level of state economies and discerning the impact of fiscal and regulatory policies – as well as nationwide policies – on state economies has been hampered by a limited number of available sets of high frequency indicators. In this paper, we review the data sources and series available for a cross-section of states, with discussion of the associated advantages and disadvantages. We provide estimates of the correlation and comovement of various indicators with state-level real GDP, and how different indicators define turning points in state economies. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of high frequency state-level GDP by evaluating whether a particular state economy is performing in line with expectations.

The New Fama Puzzle

We re-examine the Fama (1984) puzzle – the finding that ex post depreciation and
interest differentials are negatively correlated, contrary to what theory suggests – for
eight advanced country exchange rates against the US dollar, over the period up to
February 2016. The rejection of the joint hypothesis of uncovered interest parity (UIP)
and rational expectations – sometimes called the unbiasedness hypothesis – still occurs,
but with much less frequency. Strikingly, in contrast to earlier findings, the Fama
regression coefficient is positive and large in the period after the global financial crisis.
However, using survey based measures of exchange rate expectations, we find much
greater evidence in favor of UIP. Hence, the main story for the switch in Fama
coefficients in the wake of the global financial crisis is mostly – but not entirely – a
change in how expectations errors and interest differentials co-move, though the risk
premium also plays a critical role for safe haven currencies (Japanese yen and Swiss
franc).