An article in the July 26 edition of The Economist referenced a paper written by La Follette School Professor Menzie Chinn and Kavan Kucko (MIPA ’08). The article discussed how the yield curve for government bonds inverted just before each of the most recent U.S. recessions.
“The yield-curve omen is not simply folk wisdom,” the author wrote. “An analysis by Menzie Chinn and Kavan Kucko, for example, in which the authors examined nine advanced economies between 1970 and 2009, determined that the spread between the yield on ten-year and three-month bonds was a meaningful predictor of industrial activity in the following year.”
Chinn and Kucko wrote the paper, The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time, while Kucko was a project assistant for Chinn. Kucko, who received a doctorate in economics from Boston University in 2016, is an associate at Cornerstone Research, which provides economic and financial consulting and expert testimony.
A finalist in the Presidential Management Fellows Program, Kucko previously worked for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Before receiving his bachelor’s degree in economics from UW–Madison in 2007, Kucko served a served a 13-month tour in Iraq with the U.S. Army. He speaks Japanese.